Last reviewed: September 2026 · By the HVAC Brief Editorial Team · Our sourcing and editorial standards
At 2025/26 prices, a gas furnace is cheaper to run than a heat pump in most US states. A minimum-efficiency heat pump beat an 80% gas furnace on cost per unit of heat in 9 of 41 states; nationally, gas heat cost $18.82 per million Btu against $24.23 from a heat pump.
Heat pumps win clearly in the low-cost-electricity South, led by Arkansas, and lose by wide margins where electricity is expensive. Running cost is only part of the decision, and the answer differs sharply by state.
Most comparisons of heat pumps and gas furnaces use a single national price, which hides the only variable that decides the answer: the relative price of electricity and gas where you live. This page computes the cost of delivering a million Btu of heat with each system, in each state, using the 2025/26 heating-season prices.
The national comparison
| System | Cost per million Btu |
|---|---|
| Gas furnace, 80% AFUE (current federal minimum) | $18.82 |
| Gas furnace, 95% AFUE (condensing; federal minimum from Dec 2028) | $15.85 |
| Heat pump, seasonal COP 2.20 (federal minimum, HSPF2 7.5) | $24.23 |
| Heat pump, seasonal COP 2.49 (ENERGY STAR median, HSPF2 8.5) | $21.41 |
At the national average prices, gas comes out ahead of both heat pump cases on running cost. The national figure for an 80% furnace matches our cost of heat by fuel analysis, which uses the same method.
State by state
| State | Electricity | Gas per Mcf | Gas furnace 80% | Heat pump (min) | Heat pump (COP 2.49) | Cheaper, min HP vs 80% gas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 13.61¢ | $23.54 | $28.40 | $18.13 | $16.02 | Heat pump |
| Texas | 16.06¢ | $22.61 | $27.28 | $21.40 | $18.90 | Heat pump |
| Oklahoma | 13.58¢ | $18.04 | $21.76 | $18.09 | $15.98 | Heat pump |
| Arizona | 15.44¢ | $19.36 | $23.37 | $20.57 | $18.17 | Heat pump |
| Georgia | 15.40¢ | $19.38 | $23.38 | $20.52 | $18.13 | Heat pump |
| Missouri | 13.96¢ | $17.29 | $20.86 | $18.60 | $16.43 | Heat pump |
| Hawaii | 46.28¢ | $56.11 | $67.70 | $61.65 | $54.47 | Heat pump |
| Alabama | 16.54¢ | $18.55 | $22.38 | $22.03 | $19.47 | Heat pump |
| Mississippi | 15.19¢ | $17.07 | $20.59 | $20.24 | $17.88 | Heat pump |
| Kentucky | 14.27¢ | $15.43 | $18.61 | $19.01 | $16.80 | Gas |
| Oregon | 15.40¢ | $16.61 | $20.05 | $20.52 | $18.13 | Gas |
| Delaware | 17.86¢ | $18.76 | $22.63 | $23.79 | $21.02 | Gas |
| Nebraska | 12.90¢ | $13.29 | $16.04 | $17.19 | $15.18 | Gas |
| Virginia | 16.83¢ | $17.44 | $21.04 | $22.42 | $19.81 | Gas |
| Tennessee | 13.87¢ | $14.13 | $17.05 | $18.48 | $16.33 | Gas |
| Kansas | 15.21¢ | $14.59 | $17.61 | $20.26 | $17.90 | Gas |
| West Virginia | 15.47¢ | $14.20 | $17.14 | $20.61 | $18.21 | Gas |
| Wyoming | 13.95¢ | $12.46 | $15.04 | $18.58 | $16.42 | Gas |
| Massachusetts | 30.14¢ | $24.98 | $30.14 | $40.15 | $35.48 | Gas |
| Utah | 13.16¢ | $10.94 | $13.20 | $17.53 | $15.49 | Gas |
| North Dakota | 12.36¢ | $9.98 | $12.04 | $16.47 | $14.55 | Gas |
| Nevada | 13.53¢ | $10.84 | $13.08 | $18.02 | $15.93 | Gas |
| Ohio | 18.70¢ | $14.19 | $17.13 | $24.91 | $22.01 | Gas |
| Vermont | 23.95¢ | $18.25 | $22.02 | $31.91 | $28.19 | Gas |
| Iowa | 14.20¢ | $10.74 | $12.96 | $18.92 | $16.71 | Gas |
| New Hampshire | 26.79¢ | $19.76 | $23.84 | $35.69 | $31.53 | Gas |
| Pennsylvania | 21.04¢ | $15.50 | $18.70 | $28.03 | $24.76 | Gas |
| District of Columbia | 24.66¢ | $17.48 | $21.09 | $32.85 | $29.03 | Gas |
| South Dakota | 14.50¢ | $10.19 | $12.30 | $19.32 | $17.07 | Gas |
| Indiana | 17.04¢ | $11.69 | $14.10 | $22.70 | $20.06 | Gas |
| California | 33.25¢ | $22.32 | $26.93 | $44.30 | $39.14 | Gas |
| Colorado | 16.72¢ | $11.13 | $13.44 | $22.27 | $19.68 | Gas |
| Montana | 13.95¢ | $9.21 | $11.11 | $18.58 | $16.42 | Gas |
| Minnesota | 16.25¢ | $10.65 | $12.85 | $21.65 | $19.13 | Gas |
| New York | 29.38¢ | $18.20 | $21.96 | $39.14 | $34.58 | Gas |
| New Jersey | 23.98¢ | $14.78 | $17.83 | $31.95 | $28.23 | Gas |
| Illinois | 19.22¢ | $11.44 | $13.80 | $25.60 | $22.62 | Gas |
| Wisconsin | 19.00¢ | $11.29 | $13.62 | $25.31 | $22.36 | Gas |
| Idaho | 12.96¢ | $7.30 | $8.81 | $17.27 | $15.25 | Gas |
| Michigan | 21.53¢ | $10.87 | $13.12 | $28.68 | $25.34 | Gas |
| Alaska | 27.09¢ | $13.18 | $15.90 | $36.09 | $31.89 | Gas |
Ranked from most to least favourable to heat pumps. The decisive factor is the ratio of electricity to gas prices, not climate: Arkansas and Texas favour heat pumps because electricity there is cheap relative to gas, while Alaska, Michigan and Idaho favour gas because it is not. State prices are from our electricity and natural gas trackers.
What this comparison leaves out
This is the running cost of heat only. A heat pump also cools, so a household replacing both a furnace and an air conditioner compares one heat pump against two systems. A household without gas service avoids a fixed monthly gas charge entirely. Installed costs, incentives and the expected path of fuel prices all change the calculation, as does the Arkansas-to-Alaska spread itself.
There is also a climate caveat that cuts against heat pumps. Seasonal ratings are averages under standard conditions, and heat pump efficiency falls as it gets colder, so in the coldest states the real comparison is less favourable than shown. How certified heat pumps hold up at 5°F is in our cold-weather analysis, and how many homes now use each system is in our analysis of heat pumps in new homes.
Frequently asked questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace?
In most states, not at current prices on running cost alone. A minimum-efficiency heat pump delivered heat for less than an 80% gas furnace in 9 of 41 states over the 2025/26 heating season. Nationally, heat from an 80% furnace cost $18.82 per million Btu against $24.23 from a minimum heat pump.
Where is a heat pump cheaper than gas?
Where electricity is cheap relative to gas. Arkansas, Texas and Oklahoma are the most favourable, with a minimum heat pump costing 36% to 17% less per unit of heat than an 80% furnace.
Where is gas cheaper?
In most of the Northeast, Midwest and West, where electricity is expensive relative to gas. In Alaska a minimum heat pump costs 2.3 times as much per unit of heat as an 80% furnace.
Does a more efficient heat pump change the answer?
Somewhat. At the ENERGY STAR median efficiency (seasonal COP 2.49), a heat pump beats an 80% furnace in 15 of 41 states. Against a 95% condensing furnace, which becomes the federal minimum for most new furnaces in December 2028, it wins in 7.
Why would anyone choose a heat pump if gas is cheaper to run?
Because running cost per unit of heat is one input among several. A heat pump also provides air conditioning, replacing two systems with one, and it avoids a gas connection and its fixed monthly charge. Installed cost, available incentives and future fuel prices all change the comparison.
How cold does it have to be before a heat pump loses?
The ratings used here are seasonal averages. Heat pump efficiency falls in very cold weather, so in cold states the real-world comparison is somewhat worse for heat pumps than these figures show. Our cold-weather analysis shows the median certified heat pump keeps 77% of its capacity at 5°F.
Methodology and limitations
- Gas cost per million Btu delivered = (heating-season price per Mcf / 1.036) / AFUE. EIA’s average heat content of 1,036,000 Btu per Mcf.
- Heat pump cost per million Btu delivered = (price per kWh x 293.07 kWh per million Btu) / seasonal COP, using 3,412 Btu per kWh.
- Seasonal COP: 2.20 is HSPF2 7.5 divided by 3.412, the federal minimum for split-system heat pumps. 2.49 is the median HSPF2 (8.5) of ENERGY STAR certified heat pumps divided by 3.412.
- Gas prices: EIA residential natural gas price, simple average of October 2025 to March 2026. A heating-season window is used deliberately: summer per-unit gas prices are inflated by fixed charges spread over low volume and would overstate gas costs.
- Electricity prices: EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.B, residential, year to date through July 2026. Electricity prices vary far less by season than gas prices.
- States are included only where all six heating-season gas months are published (41 states).
- Running cost only. Installed cost, cooling value, fixed charges, incentives and field efficiency in cold weather are not included.
- This page replaces our earlier comparison of installed heat pumps and gas furnaces.
Sources
- US Energy Information Administration, residential natural gas prices and Electric Power Monthly.
- ENERGY STAR, Certified Heat Pumps (median HSPF2).
The HVAC Brief is an independent trade publication. We do not sell equipment, take manufacturer advertising, or accept payment for placement in our research. Corrections welcome.
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